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July 04, 2025 • Tennis Analytics

Alcaraz and Struff: A third-round thriller awaits. A blockbuster third-round

Alcaraz and Struff: A third-round thriller awaits.

A blockbuster third-round match is set for tomorrow as the explosive Carlos Alcaraz takes on the powerful German, Jan-Lennard Struff. Their history suggests a close battle, with Alcaraz leading the head-to-head 3-1, but three of their four matches have gone the distance. While Alcaraz is the heavy favorite, Struff's aggressive style and big serve could pose a significant challenge.

  • Head-to-Head: Alcaraz leads 3-1, but their matches are consistently tight. Their last encounter at the 2024 Madrid Open was a thrilling three-setter won by Alcaraz. They also played a five-set epic at Wimbledon in 2022, also won by the Spaniard.
  • Playing Styles: This match will be a classic contrast of styles. Alcaraz is an aggressive baseliner with a devastating forehand and incredible court coverage. Struff relies on a powerful serve and a high-risk, aggressive game, aiming for short points.
  • Recent Form & Stakes: Alcaraz has been in formidable form, recently winning the French Open. However, he was pushed to five sets in his opening-round match, showing some vulnerability. Struff, who has never reached the second week of Wimbledon, will be looking for a career-defining upset.
  • Betting Odds: The betting odds heavily favor Alcaraz, with an implied probability of winning as high as 98.04%. However, given their history of close matches, some see value in betting on a longer match, with both players winning a set.

This third-round clash promises to be a captivating encounter. Alcaraz, the young phenom and two-time defending champion, comes in as the clear favorite, but his recent five-set struggle in the first round has shown he is not invincible. The Spaniard's game is built on relentless aggression from the baseline, utilizing a powerful and heavy forehand to dictate play and open up the court. His agility and defensive skills are also top-notch, allowing him to turn defense into offense in an instant.

On the other side of the net, Jan-Lennard Struff is a dangerous opponent with the tools to trouble anyone on his day. The German's biggest weapon is his formidable serve, which he uses to set up his aggressive, all-or-nothing groundstrokes. He will look to keep the points short and take the racket out of Alcaraz's hands.

Their head-to-head record speaks to the potential for a close match. Alcaraz has won three of their four encounters, but Struff won their first meeting at the French Open in 2021. More tellingly, their matches at Wimbledon in 2022 and Madrid in 2023 and 2024 all went to a deciding set. Struff has managed to win a set in all four of their previous meetings.

For Alcaraz, a win moves him one step closer to a potential third consecutive Wimbledon title. For the 35-year-old Struff, this is an opportunity to score a massive upset and reach the fourth round at Wimbledon for the first time in his career. While the odds are stacked against him, Struff's power and aggressive mindset give him a fighting chance to push Alcaraz to his limits once again. A victory for the German would be a monumental achievement.