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July 04, 2025 • Tennis Analytics

Wimbledon 3rd Round: Alcaraz v Struff

On Center Court Friday, Carlos Alcaraz takes on the powerful German, Jan-Lennard Struff. Their history suggests a close battle, with Alcaraz leading the head-to-head 3-1, but three of their four matches have gone the distance. While Alcaraz is the heavy favorite, Struff's aggressive style and big serve could pose a challenge.

* Their last encounter at the 2024 Madrid Open was a thrilling three-setter won by Alcaraz. They also played a five-set epic at Wimbledon in 2022, also won by the Spaniard.

* Playing Styles: This match will be a contrast of styles. Alcaraz is an virtuoso baseliner with a devastating forehand and incredible court coverage. Struff relies on a powerful serve and a high-risk, aggressive game, aiming for short points.

* Recent Form & Stakes: Alcaraz has been in formidable form, currently on his longest career win streak (20), winning in Rome, at the French Open and at Queens Club. However, he was pushed to five sets in his opening-round match, showing some vulnerability. Struff, who has never reached the second week of Wimbledon, will be looking for a career-defining upset. After recent challenges, Struff appears as healthy and consistent as he has been in some time. Prior to Wimbledon he had lost 12 of 14.

* Betting Odds:** The betting odds heavily favor Alcaraz at -2500. However, given their history of close matches, some see value in betting on a longer match, with both players winning a set. Struff has managed to win a set in all four of their previous meetings.

For Alcaraz, a win moves him one step closer to a potential third consecutive Wimbledon title. For the 35-year-old Struff, this is an opportunity to score a massive upset and reach the fourth round at Wimbledon for the first time in his career. While the odds are stacked against him, Struff's power and aggressive mindset will need to remain controlled to give him a chance to push Alcaraz to his limits once again. The winner meets 14th seed Andrey Rublev or veteran qualifier Adrian Mannarino in the 4th round.