Sinner's Absence Reshapes U.S. Open Title Race

By Joey Tennis Balls · model-driven tennis analysis · August 24, 2026

Carlos Alcaraz's U.S. Open title probability rises 14.5 points to 34.2 percent once Jannik Sinner is removed, according to the kick-serve.com model.

Carlos Alcaraz is the biggest gainer in the kick-serve.com model's U.S. Open projection: with the absent players removed from the field, his title probability rises 14.5 points, from 19.7 percent to 34.2 percent.

The model treats the field as a proxy built from the top 128 players in the current ATP rankings; the qualifying places are not yet known. Because the draw is not out, no bracket is modelled — the simulation pairs players randomly each round across 200,000 draws.

Three players are absent from the field: Jannik Sinner, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Emilio Nava. The model removes each absentee separately to attribute their effect; Sinner alone accounts for Alcaraz's full 14.5-point gain, while the other two absences have no measurable effect on Alcaraz, meaning a smaller change than the simulation can resolve. The model does not model a reason for any absence.

Alcaraz last played on 2026-04-14, 132 days before the model's computation date of 2026-08-24. The model's uncertainty around his rating is above the field median: Glicko deviation 74.8 versus 62.4. That makes his projection less certain than the headline number suggests.

Model: Elo on hard courts, 200,000 simulated draws, random pairings each round (no bracket exists before the draw). Field: top 128 by official ATP ranking; the qualifying places are not yet known. Computed 2026-08-24.