See the model think.
Every number on KickServe comes from one engine: a dual Elo + Glicko-2 rating system. Instead of describing it, play with it. Drag the gap between two players and watch both models weigh in — then thin the evidence and see them disagree.
A point, and a point with a band
Both models rate every player from match results — but they answer slightly different questions. Elo gives a single number: fast to move, easy to read. Glicko-2 gives a number and a reliability band (its rating deviation, RD) — how sure we are. A hot streak on thin data widens the band, so the model hedges instead of overreacting.
Reacts quickly to every result. It carries no sense of its own certainty — a 3-match rating and a 300-match rating look equally confident.
Same rating, plus a confidence band that shrinks as evidence piles up. A wide band pulls win-probabilities toward a coin-flip.
Clay ≠ grass ≠ hard
We don't rate players once. We rate them on hard, clay and grass separately — plus an overall and a rolling last-52-week form window. The same player can be a top-2 clay threat and mid-pack on grass, and the surface ratings say so.
Illustrative: one clay specialist, three ratings. Each surface leader is normalized to 2350.
We show the market's fair price — vig removed
Betting odds bake in the bookmaker's margin (the vig), so the two prices add up to more than 100%. We strip that out to recover the market's own estimate of the true probability, then show it next to Elo and Glicko so you can see where model and market agree — or don't.
Where the numbers come from
Ratings are recomputed from full match results and refreshed daily. Live scores and win-probabilities update continuously through play, and every player page carries rating and ranking history going back years — all from the same engine. This project is independent and inspired by the open-analytics spirit of Tennis Abstract.