Model vs market · rebuilt every 15 min
Tennis predictions today
Wednesday 14 October 2026: 7 priced ATP and WTA matches today, 5 tomorrow. The model’s strongest favourite is A. Sabalenka over A. Li — 89% against the market’s 43%. The biggest disagreement with the market is A. Sabalenka vs A. Li: the model has A. Sabalenka at 89%, the market at 43%.
Today — Wednesday 14 October
| Time (ET) | Match | Model | Market | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:00am | A. Sabalenka vs A. Li Wuhan · R2 | 89% | 43% | +46 |
| 8:00am | L. Fernandez vs H. Shi Wuhan · R2 | 74% | 96% | -22 |
| 8:07am | T. Paul vs Z. Bergs Shanghai · R16 | 69% | 85% | -16 |
| 4:00pm | J. Paolini vs S. Kartal Wuhan · R16 | 68% | 50% | +18 |
| 10:00pm | E. Svitolina vs H. Guo Wuhan · R16 | 89% | 92% | -3 |
| 11:00pm | K. Muchova vs D. Shnaider Wuhan · R16 | 68% | 51% | +17 |
| 11:00pm | M. Sakkari vs M. Pohankova Wuhan · R16 | 64% | 69% | -5 |
Tomorrow — Thursday 15 October
| Time (ET) | Match | Model | Market | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:00am | I. Jovic vs M. Chwalinska Wuhan · R16 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| 2:30am | A. Davidovich Fokina vs A. Gea Shanghai · QF | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| 6:00am | A. Zverev vs A. De Minaur Shanghai · QF | 64% | 65% | -1 |
| 10:00pm | D. Medvedev vs T. Paul Shanghai · QF | 57% | 64% | -7 |
| 10:00pm | R. Jodar vs C. Ruud Shanghai · QF | 58% | 56% | +2 |
Model is the win probability the Elo model gives the named player on this match’s surface; market is the same player’s de-vigged implied probability from the pre-match line; Δ is model minus market in points, bold where they disagree by 10 or more. Informational analysis, not betting advice. How the numbers are built: the algo — as data: /data/.