August 25, 2025 • Tennis Analytics

US Open 2025: Alcaraz’s Quarter

Written August 25, 2025, about the events of that week. For today's numbers see the live Elo & Glicko rankings or who is moving now.

Carlos Alcaraz's path through the 2025 US Open is a demanding one, with several dangerous opponents ahead of a potential quarterfinal. The second seed is projected to meet American Ben Shelton there, and the section became less predictable after the first-round exit of former champion Daniil Medvedev.

Projected Quarterfinal: The projected quarterfinal in this section is Carlos Alcaraz against the sixth seed, American Ben Shelton.
Early Threats Remain: Despite Medvedev's departure, Alcaraz's draw includes dangerous players, with big-serving Reilly Opelka in the first round and the in-form Alejandro Davidovich Fokina also in his half.
Medvedev's Shock Exit: On the opening night, 13th seed Daniil Medvedev was knocked out by Frenchman Benjamin Bonzi in five sets.
American Hopes and Norwegian Doubts: Ben Shelton carries significant expectations after a recent Masters 1000 title, while former finalist Casper Ruud looks to overcome a period of poor form.

The 2025 US Open draw has presented Carlos Alcaraz with some challenges in early rounds. His projected quarterfinal opponent is American Ben Shelton. Shelton, the sixth seed, recently captured his first ATP Masters 1000 title in Toronto and began his US Open campaign with a straight-sets victory over up-and-coming Peruvian Ignacio Buse. Shelton is known for his powerful serve. Expectations are high for the 22-year-old to make a deep run on home soil, as his consistency has improved in 2025.

Alcaraz's quarter changed with the first-round upset of Daniil Medvedev. The 2021 champion was defeated by Benjamin Bonzi in a five-set match that ended late Sunday night. The contest was marked by an incident where a photographer entered the court on match point, leading to a delay and a heated reaction from Medvedev, which energized the crowd. The loss concludes a disappointing Grand Slam season for Medvedev, who managed only one win across the four majors.

With Medvedev out, other players will look to capitalize. Spain's Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, the 18th seed, beat Alexander Shevchenko in 89 minutes in his first match. ADF is experiencing perhaps his best season. With Medvedev out, he'll be the favorite to emerge from his section and meet Alcaraz in round 4.

Meanwhile, 2022 finalist Casper Ruud is also positioned in this section of the draw, seeded to potentially face Shelton in the fourth round. Ruud enters the tournament in a slump, having struggled for form in recent months. However, a run to the final of the mixed doubles event may have provided some much-needed match play and confidence for the Norwegian. Earlier this year he won his first 1000 level event in Madrid. He has quietly gone 28-11 on the year, and 14-6 on hard courts. He will need his best tennis to get through a difficult draw. Alcaraz opens against Reilly Opelka, a dangerous first-round opponent.