August 26, 2025 • Tennis Analytics

US Open 2025: Zverev’s Path Paved, But Threats Lurk in His Quarter

Written August 26, 2025, about the events of that week. For today's numbers see the live Elo & Glicko rankings or who is moving now.

Alexander Zverev's quest for a maiden Grand Slam title at the 2025 US Open sees him anchoring what analysts are calling the weakest quarter of the draw. However, a closer look reveals a number of dangerous opponents, each with the potential to derail the German's ambitions. Key storylines in this quadrant include a potential fourth-round match against a longtime friend, the rise of a tenacious Australian, and the uncertain futures of other top seeds.

Friend and Foe: A potential fourth-round match looms between Zverev and his longtime friend, Andrey Rublev.
The Aussie Threat: Eighth-seed Alex de Minaur is in prime form and has a favorable path to a potential quarterfinal against Zverev.
Contrasting Fortunes: While Karen Khachanov arrives in New York with strong summer results, Stefanos Tsitsipas is struggling, facing a possible early exit.
Collision Course: The winner of this quarter is projected to face top seed and defending champion Jannik Sinner in the semifinals.

Headlined by third-seed Alexander Zverev, the second quarter of the men's draw presents a mix of opportunity and danger. While Zverev's initial rounds appear manageable, starting with Alejandro Tabilo, the path deep into the second week is littered with significant threats. The standout potential matchup is a fourth-round meeting with Andrey Rublev. The 15th-seeded Rublev, a four-time quarterfinalist in New York, has found his form with deep runs in Toronto and Cincinnati and could prove a substantial hurdle.

On the other side of this section, Alex de Minaur is poised for a deep run. The eighth seed comes in hot, having won the Washington Open, and has a clear opportunity to make his first Grand Slam semifinal. His path could include a third-round encounter with a vulnerable Stefanos Tsitsipas. The Greek star has endured a difficult season, with his ranking slipping and having not won consecutive matches at a tournament since April.

A significant obstacle for de Minaur could come in the form of Karen Khachanov. The powerful ninth seed was a semifinalist here in 2022 and has had a productive summer, including a run to the Toronto final where he defeated Zverev. A potential fourth-round match between de Minaur and Khachanov would be a highlight, with the winner likely earning a shot at Zverev. For Zverev, who reached the Australian Open final earlier this year, the draw offers a clear path, but the consistent threat of Rublev, Khachanov's hard-court game and the form of de Minaur make this quarter anything but a straightforward affair.