July 02, 2025 • Tennis Analytics

Wimbledon Round 2, Day 1: What to Expect Wednesday After Round 1 Chaos

Written July 02, 2025, about the events of that week. For today's numbers see the live Elo & Glicko rankings or who is moving now.

Seeded Upsets: The first round saw 13 seeded men and 10 seeded women getting knocked out. These 23 upsets tie the most recorded at any Grand Slam event since they began seeding 32 players in 2001. The record could still be broken, as one R1 match remains incomplete, with Brandon Nakashima, the men's #29 seed, leading his match 2 sets to 1.
Alcaraz's half of the draw lost half its seeds. 8 of 16 seeded players lost in round 1, including #3 seed Alexander Zverev, #8 Holger Rune and #9 Daniil Medvedev. Two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz and American Taylor Fritz both survived challenging five-set battles to advance to Wednesday's second round.
An Open Field: With so many big names eliminated, the path to the final has opened up, creating opportunities for dark horses and shaking up the betting odds.
Match of the Day: Fritz(-295) v Diallo. Taylor Fritz, after coming back from two sets down to defeat the powerful Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in a match spanning two days, takes on the in-form, 6'8" Canadian Gabriel Diallo, ranked #40. Diallo won his first title, on grass, at 's-Hertogenbosch in June. He has been one of the most improved players over the past year. This time last year he was ranked #166.
Other matches of note:

Alcaraz (-10000) v Tarvet. #2 seed and 2x defending champ Carlos Alcaraz should have a chance to level up his game after his shaky 5-setter in R1 v veteran Fabio Fognini. 21-year old Brit Tarvet may benefit from a home crowd, but the world #733 is playing in his 2nd career tour level match, and may be in over his head on such a big stage so early in his career.

Fonseca (-230) v Brooksby. #54 Joao Fonseca, the 18-year-old Brazilian phenom, has been filling stadiums and rising quickly in the rankings. He'll have his hands full vs American Jenson Brooksby, who has made an impressive return to the game after missing two years due to injuries to both wrists as well as a suspension. Both players won their first titles in 2025. Fonseca's explosiveness and variety will contrast with Brooksby's counterpunching. The match will test Fonseca's controlled aggression.

Tiafoe (-172) v Norrie. Frances Tiafoe, the 12th seed, faces Brit Cameron Norrie (ranked No. 61.) Tiafoe leads their head-to-head 2-1, but this is their first meeting on grass. Norrie, a 2022 semifinalist, will lean on home support and his flat backhand to disrupt Tiafoe’s rhythm. The match pits Tiafoe’s power against Norrie’s grit on Centre Court.