July 04, 2025 • Tennis Analytics

Fritz’s Tricky Draw Continues vs. Davidovich Fokina in the 3rd Round

Written July 04, 2025, about the events of that week. For today's numbers see the live Elo & Glicko rankings or who is moving now.

American Taylor Fritz plays Spain's Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the third round at Wimbledon. Both players have fought through the early rounds, and the match is on Centre Court at the All England Club.

Head-to-Head: Davidovich Fokina holds a narrow 3-2 lead in their career meetings. However, Fritz won their most recent and only encounter on grass just last week in the Eastbourne semifinals.
Recent Form: Fritz entered Wimbledon having won titles at both the Stuttgart and Eastbourne grass-court tournaments. Davidovich Fokina has also shown improvement, reaching back-to-back finals earlier in the year and the semifinals at Eastbourne before falling to Fritz.
Path to the Third Round: Fritz has endured a grueling start to his Wimbledon campaign, surviving back-to-back five-setters against 6'8" elite servers Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and Gabriel Diallo. He battled back from two sets down in his opening match and overcame another tough five-setter in the second round, spending a significant amount of time on court. Davidovich Fokina, in contrast, has had a slightly more straightforward path, winning his first match in straight sets and his second in four.
Betting Odds: Fritz is a clear favorite according to betting odds, with a moneyline around -290. However, these players are quite familiar with each other. Last week's match was competitive, with Fritz pulling through 63 36 61. In their match before that, however, on hard court at Delray Beach, the Spaniard pulled through 76 76.

This third-round matchup presents a classic contrast of styles. Fritz, the powerful American, relies on his big serve and flat, aggressive groundstrokes to control points from the baseline. His serve has been a major weapon, firing a combined 56 aces in his first two matches. However, his movement can at times be a weakness.

Davidovich Fokina is known for his all-court game, variety, and fighting spirit. The Spaniard utilizes heavy topspin, drop shots, and is not afraid to come to the net, which can disrupt the rhythm of powerful baseliners like Fritz. He has been mentally tougher this year, vowing to fight for every point. In his Australian Open run he came back from two sets down in consecutive matches.

Fritz's difficult draw has seen him face two big-serving opponents, which may not have ideally prepared him for the grinding rallies he can expect from Davidovich Fokina. The American has already played 109 games through two rounds, raising concerns about potential fatigue.

Despite the head-to-head leaning slightly in the Spaniard's favor, Fritz's two recent grass-court titles make him the favorite. His powerful game is well-suited to the surface, and his victory over Davidovich Fokina just a week ago will provide a psychological edge. However, Davidovich Fokina's improved performance and gritty style mean he is more than capable of pulling off an upset. Expect a competitive match, with the outcome likely hinging on whether Fritz's power can overcome Davidovich Fokina's variety, tenacity and creativity. Fritz's big serve should give him the edge, but if Davidovich Fokina can extend the match, exhaustion could be a factor for Taylor.