July 06, 2025 • Tennis Analytics

Wimbledon 4th Round: Novak v Demon

Written July 06, 2025, about the events of that week. For today's numbers see the live Elo & Glicko rankings or who is moving now.

Novak Djokovic is 4 more wins from a record-tying eighth Wimbledon title. De Minaur hopes to achieve a major upset.

Here's what to watch for:

Djokovic's Form: The Serbian has dispatched his opponents efficiently. His 3rd round win over fellow Serb Miomir Kecmanovic was an easy 3 sets.
De Minaur's Form: The Australian, known for his speed and tenacity, will need to be at his absolute best. He's 9-1 in sets through 3 rounds and will look to use his agility to counter Djokovic's precision and guile.
The Age Factor: At 38, Djokovic is still winning at the highest level. His mental toughness and physical conditioning remain top-tier.
Head-to-Head: This will be the fourth meeting between the two. Djokovic leads 2-1. Last year at Wimbledon, De Minaur had to withdraw from their quarterfinal match due to a hip injury.

Djokovic, who has reached the final 6 straight years, is chasing history. He has lost only one set this tournament, in the first round vs Alexandre Muller. He joined Roger Federer as the only two male players to win 100 matches at the All-England Club. By winning the title he and Fed would be the only two men to achieve the title 8 times.

Following his French Open early exit (to Bublik 2nd round,) he spoke of how the tour season needs to be shortened as it is causing "burnout" and how he's been "mentally running on fumes." He will need to draw on all his reserves of energy and his court coverage to have a chance against the Serbian great. The Australian's biggest challenge will be to find a way to penetrate Djokovic's seemingly impenetrable defense and disrupt his rhythm.

The odds are heavily in favor of Djokovic, with his vast experience and current form making him the clear favorite. He's a -630 favorite on Fanduel. Their last meeting at Monte Carlo in 2024 saw Djokovic win a close 7-6, 6-4. A fully fit Djokovic on this surface presents an even more daunting challenge. The winner of this contest is slated to face Marin Cilic or Flavio Cobolli in the quarterfinals, and then most likely #1 Jannik Sinner in the semis. While an upset is always a possibility in the world of sports, it would take De Minaur's best tennis to beat Novak here.